S’pore Climate Will Be Up To 5°C Hotter By 2100, With More Extreme Rainfall

Hotter Days & Warm Nights Will Be More Frequent By 2100, Says Third National Climate Change Study

While Singaporeans have been enjoying cooler weather lately, we’ll likely remember the record heatwave we experienced for months last year.

That said, Singapore’s climate is projected to become much hotter by the end of this century.

Specifically, annual mean temperatures will rise by up to 5°C by the time 2100 rolls around.

This will be coupled with more extreme rainfall and more frequent dry spells.

Latest study projects climate change scenarios affecting S’pore

In a joint news release on Friday (5 Jan), the Ministry for Sustainability and the Environment (MSE) and Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) announced the findings of the Third National Climate Change Study (V3).

V3 is a projection of how climate change could affect Singapore and the surrounding region by the end of the century, i.e. 2100.

This is based on three possible scenarios:

1. low emissions — if we shift to sustainable development pathways with net zero targets achieved after 2050
2. medium emissions — if historical patterns of development continue throughout this century
3. high emissions — driven by energy-intensive, fossil fuel-based development

Needless to say, the impact of climate change will be the worst under the high-emissions scenario.

S’pore climate may get up to 0.55°C hotter per decade by 2100

Over the last 40 years, Singapore’s annual mean temperatures went up at a rate of 0.24°C per decade.

Under the worst-case scenario, though, our annual mean temperatures will rise by as much as 0.55°C every 10 years.

That means by 2100, it will increase by 0.6°C to 5°C.

Climate by 2100 may see very hot days & warm nights

That also means very hot days will become more frequent, according to V3’s worst-case scenario.

In the past 40 years, Singapore’s daily maximum temperature exceeded 35°C on only 21.4 days a year on average.

However, by 2100, this will go up to between 41 and 351 days a year.

Even our nights won’t be spared — we will get more warm nights where the temperature is above 26.3°C.

The last 40 years saw Singapore notch an average of 76 warm nights per year.

This could increase to most nights — i.e. almost all nights — in the year by the end of the century, said V3.

More extreme rainfall & dry spells

As for precipitation, it will get more erratic, with more periods of intense rainfall but longer dry spells, too.

While Singapore doesn’t have the four seasons, we do have monsoon seasons with variable rainfall.

The wild swings will get worse, with extreme daily rainfall increasing across all seasons, V3 projected under the worst-case scenario.

During the inter-monsoon months of April and May, we could get from 6% to 92% more rain.

However, during the southwest monsoon dry season from June to August, the rainfall could fall significantly below the historical low of 314mm about once every three years.

These dry spells could get more frequent and last longer, too, with one coming around every 10 to 60 months on average by 2100.

As for the traditional wet season from November to January, caused by the northeast monsoon, it may get wetter still.

The total rainfall in that period could go over the historical high of 1,507mm occasionally.

Sea levels to rise by up to 1.15m

As Singapore is an island, we’ll also be affected existentially by any rise in sea levels.

The mean sea level around the country is projected to rise by up to 1.15m by the end of the century under the high-emissions scenario, said V3.

This is higher than previous projections of up to 1m, primarily due to a better understanding of the contribution of the melting of the Antarctic ice sheets to global sea levels.

Worse still, by 2150, it could go up to around 2m.

This will hopefully be mitigated in Singapore by the planned reclamation of land off East Coast Park to create what has been termed a “Long Island”.

Those interested in finding out more about V3 may see the detailed results and data visualisation portal.

To learn how to fight climate change, visit MSE’s Climate Game Changer portal.

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Featured image adapted from CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash.