H5N1 poses ‘highest risk’ of becoming next pandemic, S’pore health authorities monitoring situation

H5N1 poses pandemic risk if human-to-human transmissions observed: Ong Ye Kung

H5N1, also known as bird flu, poses the “highest risk” of becoming the next pandemic, with the Singapore health authorities monitoring the situation.

This was revealed in a Facebook post by Health Minister Ong Ye Kung on Saturday (21 Dec).

S’pore authorities paying attention to risk of next pandemic

Mr Ong said Singapore’s health authorities are “paying far more attention” to the risk of the next pandemic after Covid-19.

As it’s now the year-end travel season, their antennae are “especially sensitive”, he added.

They are closely watching four diseases, of which H5N1 is “the one with the highest risk”.

H5N1 poses pandemic risk if human-to-human transmissions are observed

Mr Ong noted that the United States (US) has reported its first severe case of H5N1.

The case, confirmed on 13 Dec, involved an elderly patient in Louisiana who had exposure to sick and dead birds in backyard flocks, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Most of the 61 US cases so far had direct contact with livestock, which suggests animal-to-human transmissions.

However, Singapore is “keenly watching out” for evidence of human-to-human transmissions, the minister said, adding:

If that happens, it may mean that H5N1 has mutated and poses a pandemic risk.

Mysterious disease in Africa

The authorities are also monitoring a mysterious disease in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) known as “Disease X” — an “inappropriate use” of the term, Mr Ong thinks.

6% of sufferers have reportedly died, most of them children.

Singapore has decided to donate surveillance equipment to the African Centres for Disease Control and Prevention and is also prepared to train their healthcare personnel, Mr Ong said.

This is to help them identify this disease, which has remained unidentified for some time.

The DRC said the cases may be due to severe malaria that became deadly when coupled with malnutrition among children.

‘A matter of time’ when S’pore gets 1st imported mpox case

The third disease being tracked is the Clade 1 stain of mpox.

“It will be a matter of time” when Singapore experiences our first imported case, Mr Ong said, and possibly our first local infection.

While mainly wreaking havoc in Africa, sporadic imported cases have been reported in Thailand, Europe and the US.

Most recently, an individual from Germany travelled to Africa and got infected, then returned home and infected his family member, resulting in a cluster of four cases.

Thankfully, most patients recover smoothly from mpox as “it is not a very deadly disease”, the minister said, citing experiences of most countries.

No year-end wave of Covid-19

Lastly, the Ministry of Health (MOH) is still keeping an eye on Covid-19 as it will increase patient load at hospitals.

Significantly, though, there has been no year-end wave of the disease, as had been expected. Singapore was gripped by a Covid-19 wave at the same time last year.

The positive news has been gleaned from wastewater testing and random tests, which means it’s not due to lack of reporting, Mr Ong said, adding:

A possible reason is that over time, as more people get infected at different times, the infection waves become attenuated.

The dominant strain in Singapore now is MV.1, a descendant of Omicron.

It accounts for about 30% of local infections, the minister added.

Also read: S’poreans aged 45 & above have some mpox immunity due to smallpox vaccination: MOH

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Featured image adapted from Ong Ye Kung on Facebook and MS News.