The 2020 US election, which resulted in a victory for US President Joe Biden, was seen by Americans as one of the most significant ones ever. For one, it saw turnout spiking among both Democratic and Republican voters — the biggest turnout in a presidential election since 1992.
It also proved to be a referendum on Mr Donald Trump’s presidency, one that was often marked by controversy and unpredictability.
Now in true American “bigger is better” fashion, the sequel promises even more action and drama.
With American voters set to choose their next president in November, it’s shaping up to be a rematch between incumbent Mr Biden and Mr Trump.
With a myriad of court cases, scandals, and twists that TV writers don’t even dare to imagine, here are reasons why Mr Trump may win the 2024 US election.
Nothing quite describes Mr Trump’s presidency like two fat pieces of crispy chicken fillets sandwiching pieces of bacon and melty cheese.
After all, some of his campaign promises, and the policies that his administration made a reality, can honestly be a tad heart attack-inducing.
Source: The Independent
Perhaps the most outrageous of Mr Trump’s policies is “the wall” — a significant part of his 2016 presidential campaign in which he pledged to build a border fence along the United States-Mexico border to keep illegal immigrants from entering the US.
The infamous idea, which came with an iconic quote — that he would build it and “make Mexico pay for it”, was meant to offer a concrete solution the US illegal immigrant problem.
And according to the BBC, it sort of worked. The number of illegal crossings dropped during Trump’s presidency. However, BBC also said that only 80 miles of new barriers have been built during the Trump administration where there were none before.
The wall is also less concrete than promised, figuratively and literally. It’s mostly bollard fencing, and no, Mexico did not pay for it. According to The Guardian, the billion-dollar wall was also easily scaled with cheap ladders, suggesting that it might not be as potent as advertised.
Source: Wikimedia Commons
In contrast, President Biden seems to be a safer choice, with his most contentious moments stemming mostly from his son’s dealings with Ukraine.
Mr Biden’s signature moves are things such as student loan forgiveness, investing in infrastructure such as roads, bridges and transport systems, a gun safety bill and reversing Trump-era policies.
While many of his initiatives do offer plenty of benefits to a wide population, Mr Biden himself is not so popular, much like whole wheat bread.
With the rise of social media, we’re entering an era where there’s an easy access to information, ideas and opinions. The knowledge-overload also means many people crave access to what feels genuine.
In the realm of US politics, no one uses social media like Mr Trump. While most of his contemporaries post well-crafted messages that feel like the product of a whole afternoon’s work created by a team of overworked and underpaid interns, Mr Trump uses social media to say things we’d only think of saying while we’re on the john.
Source: @realDonaldTrump on X
This meant that plenty of his posts on X, known then as Twitter, are flagged for misinformation. But it’s also meant that, according to the The New York Times, he was tagged on X posts at a rate of 1,000 posts per minute.
During his fourth year as President, he had an average of 34 posts on X a day. His quick-fire posts gave followers unprecedented access to him as an individual, resulting in a very devout following.
In fact, they were so committed that when Mr Trump was banned from X in 2021, many of his followers migrated with him to a new social media platform he started, called Truth Social. According to the New York Times, that site attracted more than 1.5 million unique visitors in March 2024.
While the site’s profitability and user base are still questioned, Truth Social has done very well for something that was started as a result of the former US President getting booted off X.
According to The Economist, Mr Trump has a one point lead over Mr Biden as of 9 May 2024. Other polls, like the ones listed on The Hill, also show very similar tight margins.
Source: Michael Vadon on Wikimedia Commons
Swing states will play a massive role in this election as well, and The Hill’s polls say that Mr Trump has a slight edge in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
With the race so tight, whether Mr Trump wins the 2024 US election or not might hinge on those swing states.
Judging from the polls, a large part of Mr Biden’s voter base was made up of younger, college-educated people. In the 2020 election, according to Paw Research Centre, voters under 30 favoured Mr Biden.
Thus, the nationwide protests over the Israel-Hamas War since April on college campuses does not bode well for the incumbent President.
In fact, Politico said it is seeing a huge shift in the electorate, with Mr Biden now struggling with the less-engaged young voters.
On top of that, there was also the “uncommitted vote” movement in March as a sign of protest towards Mr Biden over Gaza.
When a voter selects “uncommitted”, this means the voter is exercising a vote for that political party, but is not committed to any of the candidates listed on the ballot.
According to The Guardian, uncommitted votes made up 13% of votes in Michigan. Minnesota and Washington also had similar numbers.
While these voters indicate that Mr Trump isn’t an option for them, it might still mean lower voter turnout for Mr Biden. And in a very tight rematch that has seen some of the highest turnout in decades, Mr Biden losing votes can prove to be huge.
As much as we’d like to pretend elections are more than just sophisticated popularity contests, there’s at least a hint of truth there.
In fact, US historian H.W. Brands flat out says that the presidential elections are pretty much just popularity contests.
One of the surest ways to lose the competition of popular opinion is to be boring. And on that front, even Mr Biden admits his speeches can be boring.
His address tends to be serious and informative, filled with academic studies, statistics, minute details about legislation and more. While crucial and significant, they are hardly riveting and certainly not the stuff that gets people talking.
Even his press secretary calls him “explainer in chief”.
Source: Wikimedia Commons
In contrast, Mr Trump’s speeches are rarely predictable. There are plenty of quotable quotes and occasionally bewildering moments that will leave his audience scratching their heads.
And recently, he didn’t even have to say anything to make headlines — he appeared to have fallen asleep during his own court case, sending media outlets into a tizzy.
He would later deny it by making a post on Truth Social that said, “Contrary to the FAKE NEWS MEDIA, I don’t fall asleep during the Crooked D.A.’s Witch Hunt, especially not today. I simply close my beautiful blue eyes, sometimes, listen intensely, and take it ALL in!!!”
Which is just the excuse we need when we get caught napping in class.
Throughout his presidency, Mr Trump has repeatedly made headlines with a myriad of wild quotes, soundbites and social media posts.
While some of things he has said can be puzzling to some, most of it tends to be quite provocative. This means that he continues to be relevant in the public space, even after his presidency and X ban.
An example is this viral X post in May 2017. Mr Trump had written: “Despite the constant negative press covfefe.” It was soon deleted, but not before the term covfefe spread like wildfire.
Unless you’re Shakespeare, you’d have to be a big deal if your misspelling or made-up word gets its very own page on Wikipedia.
People speculate that Mr Trump meant to say “coverage,” but whatever the case, the unexpected word he unleashed became an instant meme. It also turned into a business opportunity for many, with merch such as T-shirts and vanity licence plates erupting online.
Source: @realDonaldTrump on X
Another example: In 2018, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said during a televised new year speech that he always had his nuclear button on his table.
In response, Mr Trump made a post on X saying his button was “much bigger” and “more powerful” than Mr Kim’s, and that his actually works.
His unorthodox words naturally sent social media into a frenzy.
There were also other memorable times, such as when Mr Trump called himself a “stable genius” or when he said that the only reason to vote Democrat is if you’re tired of winning.
No matter how Mr Trump fares in the 2024 US election, two things are certain to happen. The collective blood pressures of Americans nationwide will shoot up.
And the ratings of cable network C-SPAN will surely hit record-high numbers.
Also read: Donald Trump Will Run For President Again In 2024, Says America’s Comeback Starts Now
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