S’pore’s Weekly Infection Growth Rate Falls Below 1, It’s Key Indicator For Easing Restrictions

MOH Reports 12 Covid-19 Deaths On 3 Nov, Aged Between 59 & 99

On Monday (1 Nov), Singaporeans may have seen hope when we recorded a relatively low daily case tally.

But it rose back up again on Tuesday (2 Nov) and maintained that level with 3,635 new Covid-19 cases on Wednesday (3 Nov).

However, there’s still some reason to be optimistic – our weekly infection growth rate has fallen below 1 for the 1st time since 18 Oct.

That’s significant because the authorities see that ratio as a key indicator for easing some of the current restrictions.

12 deceased, all had underlying conditions

In an media update on Wednesday (3 Nov) night, the Ministry of Health (MOH) reported that 12 people had sadly passed away due to Covid-19 complications.

The deceased were aged between 59-99, and all of them had “various underlying medical conditions”, the ministry reported.

However, this time they didn’t provide details on how many of them were vaccinated or unvaccinated.

With these fatalities, Singapore’s Covid-19 death toll is now 442.

3,635 new infections, a slight uptick

On the same day, Singapore also saw a slight uptick in new infections, with 3,635 recorded. These include:

• 3,223 community cases
• 409 dormitory cases
• 3 imported cases

While the increase in total cases from the day before is more than 100, the spike is due to a rise in dormitory cases compared with Tuesday’s 141.

The number of community cases, on the other hand, actually dropped by 129.

However, among them are 535 seniors aged 60 and above.

Weekly infection growth rate drops below 1

While the figures seem grim, there might be cause for cautious optimism.

That’s because our weekly infection growth rate, apparently a “key indicator” of our situation, has fallen below 1.

It now stands at 0.96.

This is the 1st time this has happened since 18 Oct.

Why weekly infection growth rate is important

The weekly infection growth rate is a ratio that compares the number of community cases in the past week with the week before.

If it’s above 1, is means infections are continuing to rise.

That will put pressure on our healthcare system.

Easing of measures may be considered

However, if the weekly infection growth rate drops below 1, MOH may consider “some calibrated easing of measures”.

That’s what Finance Minister Lawrence Wong said during a Multi-Ministry Taskforce (MTF) press conference on 23 Oct, and an MOH press release noted on the same day.

The easing of measures may include allowing those who live in the same household to dine out together, and resuming selected group sports and school activities.

This will also depend on whether our hospital situation remains stable.

72.7% utilisation of ICU beds

Thus, let’s have a look at what’s going on in Singapore’s Intensive Care Units (ICUs).

According to MOH, 72.7% of our ICU beds are being utilised – the same percentage as recorded on Tuesday.

As of 3 Nov,

1. 293 cases need oxygen supplementation in the general ward.
2. 72 are unstable and under close monitoring in the ICU.
3. 69 are critically ill and intubated in the ICU.

While there’s been a slight increase in the number of critically ill patients, it’s offset by a dip in the number of unstable patients.

Source

Meanwhile the number of cases that require oxygen supplementation has actually dropped from 308 to 293.

IMH cluster adds 7 cases

MOH is also keeping an eye on 9 large clusters, with the one at the Institute of Mental Health being the largest at 294.

IMH added 7 more cases on 3 Nov, with all of the new cases being patients. 278 patients are now infected, and the other 16 are staff members.

The other clusters involve welfare and nursing homes, and schools like Growing Learners Student Care, PCF Sparkletots at Whampoa Block 85 and Maple Bear Loyang.

Source

Weekly growth rate may be a silver lining

While our case numbers are undoubtedly still very high, we might see a silver lining in our weekly infection growth rate.

If it manages to stay below 1 for a few more days, it means infections are going down.

That might be the tipping point that gives the authorities the confidence to ease some measures.

In the meantime, let’s play our part by following the rules and maintaining good hygiene practices.

MS News also extends our condolences to the families of the deceased.

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Featured image adapted from MS News.