The heartening part of the massive election victory of a muscular and ill-tempered President of the world’s strongest country is that he is a known quantity.
So as leaders refresh their notes on Donald Trump’s first presidency, some themes are likely to reappear.
The economy will be front and centre in his next four years as he becomes the 47th President of the United States of America.
But his second administration will come with one big difference: The sheer size of his victory will give him more clout to deal with his adversaries and friends with a renewed sense of vigour and stamina.
For a small, trade-dependent country like Singapore, it is Trump’s protectionist jingoism that must be a cause for worry. And how he will deal with China will be the main area of concern.
For the next four years, the Republic will have to walk on eggshells as the 78-year-old leader of the free world keeps his promise to slap tariffs on China and other trade partners, including Singapore, raising the cost of anything and everything.
Source: Singapore Economic Development Board. Image for illustration purposes only.
But Singapore has an advantage here. It doesn’t have a trade surplus although he has already said he will impose taxes of 60 percent or more on Chinese imports and up to 20 percent on all other imported goods.
If tariffs are imposed on Singapore goods, the cost burden will play out in the cost of living, which is already an issue for a country that is seeking to go to the polls by November next year.
Singapore will get an early sign of Trump’s intentions when the Republic’s 20-year-old free trade agreement with the US comes up for renewal.
If he drives a hard bargain and drags the talks, it will be a clear indication of which way the President will move.
Where Singapore scores is in its defence relations with the US.
Lee Kuan Yew made a daring move to allow American naval ships to dock here after the Philippines decided to cancel its agreement to allow the use of its two bases by the Americans.
Malaysia also once declared the Straits of Malacca a zone of peace. In effect, it meant that American forces were not welcome.
Then there is the Singapore-US military treaty whose life was extended to 2035, giving American forces an important foothold in a contentious part of the world where China is exerting its muscle power, especially in the South China Sea.
This is the crown jewel in Singapore-US ties. It is something Trump cannot ignore.
The lynchpin of Singapore’s foreign policy is to be friends with everybody. That approach has worked for Singapore in good and bad times.
As Trump forces his way into an unsure world, Singapore’s new Prime Minister (PM) and his team will look for common ground to work with Trump.
Source: Lawrence Wong on Facebook. Image for illustration purposes only.
It is Singapore’s relationship with China that will be watched closely in Washington. The Republic cannot appear to be too close to China.
At the same time, it cannot do anything to anger a rising power.
Singapore has enough experience to walk this tightrope with Beijing on one side and Washington on the other with finesse.
PN Balji is a veteran journalist and former editor at TODAY and The New Paper, with more than 40 years of experience in the newsroom.
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Featured image adapted from Axios for illustration purposes only.
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