Source: MS News and MeiLin Khoo on Facebook
Singapore may soon experience hotter and drier weather, as El Niño conditions are expected to develop from June.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon associated with the warming of sea surface temperatures.
On Friday (29 May), the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) said there is more than an 80% chance of El Niño forming between June and July 2026.
At the same time, a similar climate phenomenon called a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may also develop later this year.
Together, the El Niño and IOD could bring about warmer temperatures and lower rainfall across Singapore and the region until October.
As a result, the risk of transboundary haze affecting Singapore may also rise.
In a joint press release, the MSS and Natioinal Environment Agency (NEA) explained that El Niño usually affects Singapore most during the Southwest Monsoon season from June to September.
During this period, rainfall often drops significantly.
Source: NUS Arts and Social Sciences
For example, Singapore recorded rainfall levels about 35% below average during the strong 2015 El Niño event.
Meanwhile, temperatures also tend to rise during El Niño periods.
In 2016, Singapore’s average temperature between March and May reached 29.2 degrees Celsius, one degree celsius higher than the long-term average.
Source: Kirill Petropavlov on Unsplash
2016 later became one of Singapore’s hottest years on record, alongside 2019 and 2024.
Although MSS and NEA expect the El Niño to begin at a moderate strength, it could grow stronger between August and September.
Besides El Niño, MSS and NEA are also monitoring a possible positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
Most global climate models predict the phenomenon could develop between July and August.
A positive IOD usually cools sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean.
Consequently, fewer clouds form over the region, leading to drier weather.
Source: Anisa Gauri on Unsplash
Singapore’s driest year on record occurred in 1997, when both El Niño and a positive IOD happened together.
The Southwest Monsoon season, which typically happens between June and September, already marks the region’s usual dry period.
Therefore, the upcoming hotter and drier conditions could increase the risk of peatland and vegetation fires in nearby countries.
As fires become more likely, haze conditions in the region may worsen from June onwards.
Source: NUS – IPUR
If prevailing winds blow smoke towards Singapore, transboundary haze could affect local air quality.
MSS and NEA added that this year’s dry season may become more intense and prolonged than recent years, stretching into the month of October.
NEA added that agencies under the Haze Task Force are prepared to activate response plans if haze conditions worsen.
Members of the public are encouraged to monitor the one-hour PM2.5 readings when planning outdoor activities.
For next-day plans, NEA advised checking the 24-hour PSI forecasts and accompanying health advisories instead.
In addition, residents should ensure their air purifiers remain in proper working condition.
Singaporeans can also check the myENV app and MSS heat stress webpage for updates on heat and haze conditions.
Also read: S’pore experienced warmest June & Nov but wettest March in 2025 as extreme weather prevailed
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Featured image adapted from MS News and MeiLin Khoo on Facebook.