Omicron Wave Has Peaked & Is Subsiding, But Hospitals Still Under Stress: Ong Ye Kung

Hospitals Busy With Large Number Of Non-Covid Emergency Dept Admissions

In the past months, Singapore has been reporting 5-figure daily Covid-19 case counts.

To the fatalistic among us, it might seem like the number of cases might never come down.

However, the good news is that the Omicron Wave has already peaked and is subsiding. Health Minister Ong Ye Kung said.

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Despite this, all isn’t rosy at the moment, as our hospitals are still under stress, he added.

Week-on-week case ratio is below 1 & dipping

In a Facebook post on Friday (18 Mar), Minister Ong justified his assessment of the situation based on our daily case counts.

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Not only is the Omicron wave subsiding, this rollback is picking up pace.

He cited the week-on-week case ratio, which is currently almost 0.7, down from over 0.9 a few days ago.

The ratio, or weekly infection growth rate, compares the number of community cases in the past week with the week before.

If it’s above 1, is means infections are continuing to rise. But if it drops below 1 and stay there for a few days, it means infections are going down.

The minister attached a graph of the recent case trend.

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Large number of non-Covid cases in ED

Further good news is that fewer people are being hospitalised due to Covid-19, though there’s a lag from the fall in daily cases.

However, “hospitals are still very busy and under stress”, Minister Ong said. Why is this so?

It’s due to the large number of non-Covid cases being admitted to Emergency Departments (EDs).

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Chronic conditions got worse over past 2 years

Most of these patients have chronic conditions that have gotten worse over the past 2 years.

In fact, out of every 100 ED patients, 90-95% are for acute medical emergencies or a worsening of chronic medical conditions.

The worsening was because our healthcare system was so busy with Covid-19 that they couldn’t seek help readily.

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Also, a proportion of them – 20% – were not admitted to hospital because of Covid-19, but with Covid-19.

That means they tested positive for Covid-19 incidentally while admitted for another reason.

Lastly, 5% of them were admitted for Covid-19 specific treatments.

According to the chart the minister attached, hospital admissions are indeed going down, but with surges in the last 2 Mondays.

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Business-As-Usual debt

Minister Ong described this situation was called the Business-As-Usual (BAU) debt.

This has to be repaid, he said, adding.

And the debt repayment is coming at us ferociously. We hope this situation will ease in the coming couple of weeks.

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The authorities will continue to watch 2 figures closely as they plan their next stage of easing measures:

1. week-on-week case ratio
2. ED hospital admissions

Don’t rejoice too soon

While it may be reassuring that the wretched Omicron wave is subsiding, that doesn’t mean we can rejoice too soon.

Until our hospitals’ workload is close to normal, we won’t be able to live like it’s 2019 yet.

So do continue to play your part and refrain from heading to the EDs non-emergency symptoms.

Also, remember to observe safe distancing in public, even if you’ve had the virus already.

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Featured image adapted from Ong Ye Kung on Facebook and Tan Tock Seng Hospital on Facebook.